The world is in energy shock. A major economic contraction seems inevitable. The world order that has existed since the end of World War II is ending. It’s a lot to take in.

Old-paradigm analysts believe that oil demand must revert to ever-higher levels which supply simply cannot meet. In fact, the opposite is true. The correct oil paradigm is supply-driven and price-constrained.

The narrative is that U.S. oil consumption has recovered from 2020 is false. Demand remains ~750 kb/d less than in 2019 & transport fuel consumption has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels.

The timing and degree of demand destruction varies for each cycle of oil price and inflation increase but it occurs within every cycle since 1972.

The trajectory of oil prices has changed course since early March and it is downward. Analysts continue talking about incredibly tight supply and prices going to $185 or higher but WTI…

Peak oil has come back to haunt us. Shale plays bought the world another decade of supply beyond what anyone imagined twenty years ago. Those plays are far from depleted but enthusiasm for oil is.