Don’t Hold Your Breath For $70 Oil and The Demise of the Bakken

Posted in Audio/Video & Articles, Presentations, Presentations & Publications on February 24, 2017

Dont Hold Your Breath For $70 Oil

10 comments on this entry

  1. Phewww, breathing out.

  2. Another excellent presentation Art. It is vital that government leaders in all countries have someone viewing your presentations and using your work to help them make better decisions on energy policy. Do you get any feedback suggesting this is happening?

  3. Conrad,

    I don’t get much indication that government leaders or policy makers pay much attention to what I write about. My experience with those people is that they are very superficially informed about energy issues. It is too complex for their sound-byte world.

    All the best,


  4. Convinced that Asian and other investors are pumping too much into companies that will not do especially well and until light crude stock falls it is a Damoclean sword overhead keeping price low for longer. Producers trying to squeeze cash by selling “gathering systems” to investors with mineral owner swindling contracts. 80′ of 4″ pipe “transporting” gas with a flat fee higher than gas price has got to be biggest swindle since Teapot Dome.

  5. Valuable information, Art (as usual). Thank you. In your opinion, are there ongoing efforts of some kind, in the attempt to keep the price elevated, while the Saudis are trying to sell part of Aramco? Perhaps this is, in part, why long futures contracts are so elevated?

  6. Doug,

    Futures contracts on Brent currently have less value in the future than they do today. This change in the term structure of oil futures contracts followed the announcement of OPEC production cuts. That should discourage putting oil into storage. The inversion of the curve suggests that traders believe that the OPEC cuts are real and will be a factor for some time going forward.

    All the best,


    All the best,


  7. Excellent, Thanks

  8. Art: Your presentation on oil prices and the factors governing them was excellent and I enjoyed it very much. My background is in refining (with Chevron-Texaco for 34 years and now consulting in refining operations) so it is good to learn about the E&P side and the prices of crude.

  9. Art,

    I’m a recent subscriber to your blog posts and find them to be very informative and enlightening.

    Is there anything to add to your analysis regarding the relative strength of the dollar and its impact on crude prices? Obviously a strong dollar will generally weigh heavily against increased crude prices. I noticed the dollar strengthened considerably after the election but appears to have back off a bit for now.

    By the way, there appears to be a typo in the fourth bullet point of Slide 6.

    Best Regards,
    Brian Thompson

  10. Brian,

    There is a fairly good correlation between dollar strength and oil prices but it is hard to understand clearly. I know the classic explanation about buying barrels in USD but it is not satisfying. I suspect that the correlation has more to do with availability of credit.

    All the best,