- August 10, 2013
- Posted by: Art Berman
- Category: The Petroleum Truth Report
Citi recently predicted that world oil demand may peak by 2013 because of increased transport efficiency among other factors.
The Washington Post piece features a discussion with Stanford’s Adam Brandt who is skeptical about predictions of oil demand peak.
Brandt thinks the demand story is more complex because of the rise in unconventional sources for transport fuel including natural gas, biofuels and oil from tar sands, not to mention electric vehicles.
Brandt doubts that auto fuel efficiency will continue to increase has it has in the recent past and sees a potential explosion of transport demand from Asia.
He further invokes Jevon’s Paradox to suggest that easier and more pleasant driving from Google autonmous vehicles and driving errand outsourcing may in fact increase transport fuel demand. The past is not necessarily the key to the future.