- January 13, 2016
- Posted by: Art Berman
- Categories: Audio/Video & Articles, Presentations, Presentations & Publications
Great work as always Art,
One thing I’ve noticed in your economics assumptions is for example in EF calculation you are using opex/boe costs of $12/boe. Are these costs over the full production cycle (i.e. EUR as a divisor) or are these based on current production? To me seems to be the latter, but these costs per barrel will go up significantly as wells age because fixed costs (I’ve seen estimates of $5-15k per month per well) will be divided by fewer barrels.
Great presentation. I happen to be very bullish on oil and gas in the medium to long term however, there are events that can massively impact oil in an upward direction in the short term. Looking at the geopolitical tensions that are arising due to low oil prices (such as civil unrest in places like Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, and many of the “Stan” countries, as well as the inflation issues in Canada) I feel that within the year OPEC could reverse course and cut oil supplies by a couple mmbpd which could send oil prices sky rocketing. How much pain do you think Saudi Arabia and the gulf states can handle before this becomes a possibility?