- June 8, 2016
- Posted by: Art Berman
- Category: The Petroleum Truth Report
U.S. crude oil production fell 150,000 barrels per day in May and the global over-supply of liquids was 680,000 barrels per day.
The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) posted on June 7 showed that U.S. oil production declined by the greatest monthly amount so far since the peak in April 2015 (Figure 1).
Production has declined 950,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) from 9.69 million bopd in April 2015 to 8.6 mmbopd last month. EIA forecasts that production will decrease another 650,000 bopd by September for a total decline of 1.6 mmbopd since April 2015.
Declining U.S. production, an outage of 800,000 bopd because of Canadian wildfires, along with outages in Nigeria and Venezuela of perhaps 1 mmbopd are pushing oil prices higher and contributing to falling U.S. crude oil comparative inventories (Figure 2).
Comparative inventories are the most timely and reliable indicators of oil-price change. Figure 2 shows that comparative inventories fell sharply before the March-August and August-October 2015 oil-price rallies, and also fell along with the present price rally that began in March 2016. WTI futures are trading above $51 per barrel today.
The June STEO also shows that the global liquids over-supply for May was essentially flat with April at 680,000 bpd (Figure 3).
Supply fell 410,000 bpd and consumption fell 470,000 bpd–consumption typically falls in the second quarter before increasing in June or July as northern hemisphere seasonal usage peaks. World market balance (supply minus consumption) has been improving since late 2015 and early 2016. This is partly because of outages also.
I expect U.S. production and world market balance trends to continue to favor stronger crude oil prices although it is likely that the same cyclicity that has characterized prices since the price collapse in late 2014 will continue.
I had not realized Iran was having such difficulty getting tankers to transport their export oil:
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0YR0XU
Bret,
Iran’s crude oil production increased 110,000 bopd in May compared with April and is now 810,000 bopd more than in December 2015.
All the best,
Art
I remember back when we used to forecast the Texas proration factor that each time it created the upper half of the fish tale. In other words forecaster’s generally fail to forecast the right price in fast changing times. They always lag a sharp change in the trends both up and down . It appears now the oil price forecasts could be the lower part of the fish tale.
Note if prices do not rise quickly we could be down to some 7 million bbls per day by 2017 Should that be the case then prices should rise faster but demand will fall, so who knows what will oil prices be? Take a look at the following link Figuire 23 to see what bottem half of the fish tale looks like:
http://theworldenergydilemma.com/wp-content/uploads/U-S-Energy-Self-Sufficiency-SPEE-2016-REVISED.pptx
This is not adding up. How does inventory fall when producing at a surplus? I’m not very convinced about the accuracy of EIA data.
Art,
Do you have a link or brief definition you can provide for Comparative Inventory? I’d like to understand why this is considered one of the more reliable metrics.
Thanks,
Kyle