Art, I just listened to you on the Energy Week podcast. As always, I enjoyed listening to your take on the oil industry. Do you think the just approved drilling in ANWAR (tacked on to the tax bill) & the loosening of restrictions on offshore drilling are attempts by the Trump administration to increase the supply of HEAVIER oil (assuming these areas contain mostly the lower gravity oil)?
Also, doesn’t the Gulf of Mexico contain a large amount of heavy oil? Companies have a bunch of rigs there…or can get them there pretty quick, I assume. How high does the per barrel price have to get before we see a pick-up of activity in the GOM?
Won’t our domestic drillers see this need for heavier oil and try to meet it?
The Brent was 40 Euro at it lowest point in 2017 on Midsummer and is now 56 Euro.
The Brent is up 40% in Euros while the WTI is up 50% in dollars since Midsummer.
What if it’s the other way around: The Brent goes up –> The WTI follows the Brent –> The Dollar goes down.
The Fed has no control over the Dollar. Opec and Russia controls the Dollar.
The U.S is forced to increase the LTO production or face a falling Dollar.
At some point the Fed could be forced to hike the interest rate substantially to avoid the Dollar from falling too low, but then high yield bonds would go through the roof and bankrupt the LTO producers.
Art, I just listened to you on the Energy Week podcast. As always, I enjoyed listening to your take on the oil industry. Do you think the just approved drilling in ANWAR (tacked on to the tax bill) & the loosening of restrictions on offshore drilling are attempts by the Trump administration to increase the supply of HEAVIER oil (assuming these areas contain mostly the lower gravity oil)?
Also, doesn’t the Gulf of Mexico contain a large amount of heavy oil? Companies have a bunch of rigs there…or can get them there pretty quick, I assume. How high does the per barrel price have to get before we see a pick-up of activity in the GOM?
Won’t our domestic drillers see this need for heavier oil and try to meet it?
The Brent was 40 Euro at it lowest point in 2017 on Midsummer and is now 56 Euro.
The Brent is up 40% in Euros while the WTI is up 50% in dollars since Midsummer.
What if it’s the other way around: The Brent goes up –> The WTI follows the Brent –> The Dollar goes down.
The Fed has no control over the Dollar. Opec and Russia controls the Dollar.
The U.S is forced to increase the LTO production or face a falling Dollar.
At some point the Fed could be forced to hike the interest rate substantially to avoid the Dollar from falling too low, but then high yield bonds would go through the roof and bankrupt the LTO producers.