- May 24, 2018
- Posted by: Art Berman
- Category: Presentations & Publications
You have been very enlightening to me as I have followed your knowledge and wisdom in fossil fuels. We have corresponded on several occasions. However, I’ve just been listening to your interview “Wall Street For Main Street,” and I was shocked by your statement about how fast technology moves when it’s the right tech at the right time. You said if we adopt as much as 25% of EV transport in the next number of years “it would be the first time in human history that we’ve adopted some new and, let’s face it, expensive technology that quickly….” Art, you could not be more wrong.
In fact, you should google “the S curve in Disruptive Technologies” which unveils the rich history of how fast the right disruptive technology at the right time creatively destroys the technology that has been in place. On a graph, it appears as an “S,” with the slow adoption at first leading to a rush of adoption which can go almost vertical and then ultimately peaks as the top of the “S.” Google it, Art. It’s a bona fide area of history and study. Whether it’s the ballpoint pen, the jet engine, or, in fact, the internal combustion engine (as in automobile), S-shaped disruptive technologies abound. It’s actually more common than not.
I’m not trying to be a wise guy. If you remember, I study renewables and fossils in almost equal measure, and it’s always been amazing to me how little each discipline knows about the other. Now that the costs of “solar and storage” are hitting economic parity with fossil fuels, the “S Curve” in electric transport is likely to be a wonder to behold.