- January 16, 2019
- Posted by: Art Berman
- Categories: Audio/Video & Articles, Presentations & Publications
The BOE nonsense is a bigger issue than even the decline curve “tweaking”. The initial promise was a long slow decline after the initial flush…this power law curve where the Arps formula is skewed, but BHP and SEECO had scheduled 77 wells to shut in – all less than 10 year old wells, before they were sold…for 50¢ an MCF – improvements included. So where are those 30 year, 40 year wells?
“No Energy store holds enough Energy to extract and collect an equal amount of the Energy it stores” (The Fifth Law).
The primary function of what is called the Shale Oil Industry is to provide the hope humans have always tirelessly worked for since the antiquity – conquering the supreme Laws of Physics and the natural forces behind the phenomenon of Energy scarcity.
Calming down humans living the reality of rapid resource depletion with hope today, avoiding mass panic and keeping the status-quo of the Industrial Revolution going – is a priceless psychological operation, brilliantly performed by the agency of Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand of Economics, indeed.
A part from that, there is no real oil in Shale Oil, at all!
Actually, if we reconcile all conventional, gold-grade, once-only oil and other fossil fuels supplies expended in the process of Shale Oil production, adding to it the Energy consumed in repairing the industrial-base against wear and tear and the Energy sustaining all humans involved in the process – with the actual Shale Oil supplies produced – barrel to barrel and Unit of Energy to Unit of Energy – Shale Oil proves an Energy sink, if not an Energy black hole!
Is producing Shale Oil and Tar-Sand oil the only energy-sink operation out of all conventional fossil fuels production? Is nuclear, fusion, solar, wind or hydro power production any better than Shale Oil?
No, extracting and producing any form of excess Energy is an Energy-sink operation, and that is what going on since the early steam engine in 1700s Britain – by Physics!
Classic EROEI studies are flowed. Humans have never managed to extract/produce one unit of excess Energy by expending less than one Unit of Energy in the process, due to wear in tear internal to matter.
The classic EROEI calculus is hypnotic, as it fails to identify where the 1 in its infamous 1:4 or 1:15 has come from? Has it come from a high street gasoline station?!
Can Economics sell investors and the world false hopes for big money?
Only hopes can be sold for big money. Real physical work always ending up an Energy-sink and money-loser, being real and governed by the supreme 2nd Law of Thermodynamics!
That’s why we see abandoned human settlements, junkyards full of spent machinery and technology, and mass graves of slaves and soldiers – all over the world!
For educational purposes – is very good
You’ve mentioned USGS study states resources – it is my understanding they’ve estimated recoverable reserves based on current EUR figures (sampling size and access to surface is other matter).
Could you pls point to where EIA states crude oil production is ~8MMbo/d with ~4MMBoe/d balance made by ethanol and LPG?
[…] been all over the shale oil pump and dump for years. The 40-year wells are crapping out at ten. His analysis is well-worth a […]