Using Comparative Inventory to Bet Against the Oil Market: MacroVoices Vancouver Live 2019



3 Comments

  • Grigoriy

    Art, thank you for the presentation.

    What kind of data has been used to construct CI indicator – OECD? US only?

    Have you tried to normalize inventory levels buy consumption to get an indicator which would be less dependent on 5 year look back period?

    • Arthur Berman

      I thought I was clear from both text and axis titles that all charts are U.S. storage vs WTI prices except Slide 10 which is OECD minus U.S. vs Brent. Sorry if that wasn’t clear to you.

      Comparative inventory is normalized because it is comparing stock levels for the same week for WTI and month for Brent. Consumption becomes demand through additions or withdrawals from storage. I honestly don’t see why you would want to complicate a method that already works better than anything I know of.

      Thanks for your comments,

      Art

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