Weak they are weak they shall be, but consumption remains in a long term uptrend and we may even seen the normal peaks / troughs reverse due to climate change.
Demand is over-rated by most analysts and observers. The market bets on supply needed to balance demand. That should tell us all something about what really matters. Demand is really hard to determine and harder to affect–think about all the failed efforts by central banks over the last decade. Supply is quite responsive by comparison.
Bruce, I don’t recall saying $33 but I may have referred to $30 which was the low price in 2016.
Prices have recovered slightly for now because markets have decided–rightly or wrongly–that Covid-19 will be similar to the influenza epidemics of the early 20th century. Not exactly a cheerful expectation but also not apocalyptic.
As I’ve said to others, the real story begins when the virus spreads to the world and ceases to be a China problem.
Art — Thank you, most informative.
Weak they are weak they shall be, but consumption remains in a long term uptrend and we may even seen the normal peaks / troughs reverse due to climate change.
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=42815
Francis,
Demand is over-rated by most analysts and observers. The market bets on supply needed to balance demand. That should tell us all something about what really matters. Demand is really hard to determine and harder to affect–think about all the failed efforts by central banks over the last decade. Supply is quite responsive by comparison.
Best,
Art
$33 per barrel? Did I hear that correctly? Any idea when that will happen? Is your projection statistically grounded?
Thanks
Bruce, I don’t recall saying $33 but I may have referred to $30 which was the low price in 2016.
Prices have recovered slightly for now because markets have decided–rightly or wrongly–that Covid-19 will be similar to the influenza epidemics of the early 20th century. Not exactly a cheerful expectation but also not apocalyptic.
As I’ve said to others, the real story begins when the virus spreads to the world and ceases to be a China problem.
Best,
Art