Coronavirus Has Crushed Oil Prices


  • MickN

    Thank you Art for making that slide deck available. Haven’t fully digested all the information yet but very sobering Summary Observations and charts.

  • Tomi

    Dear Art,
    I really respect your work and have been following you for years. Thank you for all the content you provide for us regular people.
    The oil consumption correlation to GDP is a real eye opener. Based on demand shrinking 2,8 to 4mmb/d
    world GDP would shrink similarly in percentages. These are depression figures.

    Can you elaborate why normally you see price bottoming when comparative inventory growth stops (July -21 perhaps), but in this slide deck you see price bottoming sooner when Covid-19 panic passes and estimate price returning to 50s shortly.

    Stay safe and all the best.

    • art.berman


      I believe that the steep oil-price decline anticipates the inventory build over the next 18 months or so. Ordinarily, price change is based on current comparative inventory change and some expectation a few weeks out. Because of the closure of the economy, a longer calculation is possible. It will probably be wrong but that’s my belief.

      I see additional downward price pressure as part of the price discovery process. Much lower short-term prices would not surprise me but I doubt that monthly average prices will fall too much further than ~$15 WTI but who knows?

      All the best,


  • Gavin

    Thank you for making this deck available. I really enjoy your work and find it useful. All the best.

  • Phil Winner

    Thank you for making this available, Art. I appreciate the good work.

  • Mr Art,

    I have just found out about your page and I enjoyed your critical analysis.
    Thank you for sharing your knowledge…

    I am a retailer investor and I would like to know your thoughts about oil tankers stocks, such as DHT, NAT, TK. I am watching the spreads btw 12-month brent and brent spot closely. Would you have any additional comments on OPEC and the relationship between EUA X SAUDI?


    Andre Baldo

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