Dear Art,
I really respect your work and have been following you for years. Thank you for all the content you provide for us regular people.
The oil consumption correlation to GDP is a real eye opener. Based on demand shrinking 2,8 to 4mmb/d
world GDP would shrink similarly in percentages. These are depression figures.
Can you elaborate why normally you see price bottoming when comparative inventory growth stops (July -21 perhaps), but in this slide deck you see price bottoming sooner when Covid-19 panic passes and estimate price returning to 50s shortly.
I believe that the steep oil-price decline anticipates the inventory build over the next 18 months or so. Ordinarily, price change is based on current comparative inventory change and some expectation a few weeks out. Because of the closure of the economy, a longer calculation is possible. It will probably be wrong but that’s my belief.
I see additional downward price pressure as part of the price discovery process. Much lower short-term prices would not surprise me but I doubt that monthly average prices will fall too much further than ~$15 WTI but who knows?
I have just found out about your page and I enjoyed your critical analysis.
Thank you for sharing your knowledge…
I am a retailer investor and I would like to know your thoughts about oil tankers stocks, such as DHT, NAT, TK. I am watching the spreads btw 12-month brent and brent spot closely. Would you have any additional comments on OPEC and the relationship between EUA X SAUDI?
Thank you Art for making that slide deck available. Haven’t fully digested all the information yet but very sobering Summary Observations and charts.
Dear Art,
I really respect your work and have been following you for years. Thank you for all the content you provide for us regular people.
The oil consumption correlation to GDP is a real eye opener. Based on demand shrinking 2,8 to 4mmb/d
world GDP would shrink similarly in percentages. These are depression figures.
Can you elaborate why normally you see price bottoming when comparative inventory growth stops (July -21 perhaps), but in this slide deck you see price bottoming sooner when Covid-19 panic passes and estimate price returning to 50s shortly.
Stay safe and all the best.
Tomi,
I believe that the steep oil-price decline anticipates the inventory build over the next 18 months or so. Ordinarily, price change is based on current comparative inventory change and some expectation a few weeks out. Because of the closure of the economy, a longer calculation is possible. It will probably be wrong but that’s my belief.
I see additional downward price pressure as part of the price discovery process. Much lower short-term prices would not surprise me but I doubt that monthly average prices will fall too much further than ~$15 WTI but who knows?
All the best,
Art
Thank you for making this deck available. I really enjoy your work and find it useful. All the best.
Thank you!
Thank you for making this available, Art. I appreciate the good work.
Thanks Phil.
Art
Mr Art,
I have just found out about your page and I enjoyed your critical analysis.
Thank you for sharing your knowledge…
I am a retailer investor and I would like to know your thoughts about oil tankers stocks, such as DHT, NAT, TK. I am watching the spreads btw 12-month brent and brent spot closely. Would you have any additional comments on OPEC and the relationship between EUA X SAUDI?
Sincerely,
Andre Baldo
Andre,
I suggest that you contact my business manager: [email protected]
Best,
Art