Haynesville Shale Revisited & Game Over for U.S. Oil



5 Comments

  • glenmah@grantierra.com

    Access to high commodity pricing is what makes the tight shale plays work. You have consistently advocated this requirement for the last 15 years. What do you make of the Argentina Vaca Muerta play and why large companies like Shell and, ConocoPhillips would have invested significant capital?

    • art.berman

      I make nothing of the Vaca Muerta except that it will add to world oil over-supply that will in turn, cause oil prices to move progressively lower after each new production secular peak that will be successively lower than the previous.

      Best,

      Art

  • dan

    Very interesting. You assume that oil demand will stay at -20% for the rest of 2020. The decrease in global driving is one objective measure supporting such a trend – but this could change quickly. I wonder if there are more objective factors supporting the assumption that oil demand will remain at -20% even in Q4 2020?

    • art.berman

      Dan,

      I seriously doubt that gasoline consumption will increase “quickly” with so many people losing their jobs, CV hardly contained and GDP in the toilet.

      You can hope and speculate that things will be more positive later in the year but my “thought experiment” figure is based on what is known, not felt.

      Best,

      Art

      Best,

      Art

  • dan

    EIA forecasts oil demand going back to near 100%( baseline) in Q3, whearas you predict it stays at 80% for Q3 and Q4.

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