Access to high commodity pricing is what makes the tight shale plays work. You have consistently advocated this requirement for the last 15 years. What do you make of the Argentina Vaca Muerta play and why large companies like Shell and, ConocoPhillips would have invested significant capital?
I make nothing of the Vaca Muerta except that it will add to world oil over-supply that will in turn, cause oil prices to move progressively lower after each new production secular peak that will be successively lower than the previous.
Very interesting. You assume that oil demand will stay at -20% for the rest of 2020. The decrease in global driving is one objective measure supporting such a trend – but this could change quickly. I wonder if there are more objective factors supporting the assumption that oil demand will remain at -20% even in Q4 2020?
“Haynesville Shale average well EUR since 2015 is 20 bcf; earlier wells averaged 7 bcf.”
“A good example of why investors don’t trust shale companies.”
I seem to remember you making the rounds in 2009/2010 saying that Haynesville wells would never make more than 2.0 bcf and that break-evens were $8.50/mcf. You also intimated that reserve evaluators and analysts were colluding with producers to cover up faulty economics.
Haven’t kept up with your research but wondering at what point you realised you were wrong and they were right?
Access to high commodity pricing is what makes the tight shale plays work. You have consistently advocated this requirement for the last 15 years. What do you make of the Argentina Vaca Muerta play and why large companies like Shell and, ConocoPhillips would have invested significant capital?
I make nothing of the Vaca Muerta except that it will add to world oil over-supply that will in turn, cause oil prices to move progressively lower after each new production secular peak that will be successively lower than the previous.
Best,
Art
Very interesting. You assume that oil demand will stay at -20% for the rest of 2020. The decrease in global driving is one objective measure supporting such a trend – but this could change quickly. I wonder if there are more objective factors supporting the assumption that oil demand will remain at -20% even in Q4 2020?
Dan,
I seriously doubt that gasoline consumption will increase “quickly” with so many people losing their jobs, CV hardly contained and GDP in the toilet.
You can hope and speculate that things will be more positive later in the year but my “thought experiment” figure is based on what is known, not felt.
Best,
Art
Best,
Art
EIA forecasts oil demand going back to near 100%( baseline) in Q3, whearas you predict it stays at 80% for Q3 and Q4.
“Haynesville Shale average well EUR since 2015 is 20 bcf; earlier wells averaged 7 bcf.”
“A good example of why investors don’t trust shale companies.”
I seem to remember you making the rounds in 2009/2010 saying that Haynesville wells would never make more than 2.0 bcf and that break-evens were $8.50/mcf. You also intimated that reserve evaluators and analysts were colluding with producers to cover up faulty economics.
Haven’t kept up with your research but wondering at what point you realised you were wrong and they were right?
Martin,
Those statements were based on existing technology and economics.
Jesus said he would return. He hasn’t yet. Is it time to throw away religion?
Give me a break.