One wished Art has touched in the interview on the recent armed conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia where Azerbaijan has become the newest member of war-torn, oil-rich, oil-exporting, pre-industrial-age nations-club of Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen – war-torn.
If the observation that oil-rich countries must eventually become war-torn over time – is any valid – then it means Kuwait, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Canada and other oil-rich nations would join the miserable ‘club – sooner or later, too?
Hi Art
I really enjoyed your show with George and learnt loads from it. The way you explain the oil industry, to an amateur like me in the tech industry, was so clear and interesting…..the idea that reserves is like our savings account really hit home. I have found an interesting oil exploration company in Alaska which I am following and wish to invest using my company pension. What metrics should I use to determine their success. The billion barrels of oil that shows up in the seismic testing? Any tips would be well appreciated but I will certainly be following you in future.
Thanks for the questions. There are no books that I know that address anything but dated and superficial approaches to oil industry investing. Your best approach on the Alaska company is to contact a consultant to help you evaluate its claims. If you are asking about Pantheon, I have consulted for them and may be able to help. I am also quite current on what is happening in AK.
Hi Art
Thanks for your response. It is certainly Pantheon and based on my ‘amateur’ knowledge they argue they can trade in profit even if oil falls to under $32 which seems interesting in this market. I will contact you by email via your site privately? Adam
Credit where credit is due. On the price of oil, you nailed it again Art.
At minute 34+ you said using your Comparative Inventory info oil was $4-5 too low. This was on 28th October when WTI was around $38. Today, and since 2 weeks or so, WTI is around $46. This increase of around $8 is even higher than you predicted, and the extra upside is maybe in good part due to the positive vaccine news.
Comparative inventory has decreased quite a bit in the 6 weeks since that interview and price changes accordingly along the yield curve. At today’s CI, $45 is the correct price based on the yield curve.
Great job how can I learn about investing in the industry?
Thanks, John.
I suggest that you follow me on twitter if you don’t already @aeberman12 and also follow the conversations on #OOTT, a twitter forum of oil traders.
All the best,
Art
One wished Art has touched in the interview on the recent armed conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia where Azerbaijan has become the newest member of war-torn, oil-rich, oil-exporting, pre-industrial-age nations-club of Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen – war-torn.
If the observation that oil-rich countries must eventually become war-torn over time – is any valid – then it means Kuwait, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Canada and other oil-rich nations would join the miserable ‘club – sooner or later, too?
As if the world is living in an Energy Musical Chairs Game – if you like…
Wail.
Aram,
The interviewer didn’t lead in that direction. It is, after all, his show.
Best,
Art
Hi Art
I really enjoyed your show with George and learnt loads from it. The way you explain the oil industry, to an amateur like me in the tech industry, was so clear and interesting…..the idea that reserves is like our savings account really hit home. I have found an interesting oil exploration company in Alaska which I am following and wish to invest using my company pension. What metrics should I use to determine their success. The billion barrels of oil that shows up in the seismic testing? Any tips would be well appreciated but I will certainly be following you in future.
Adam,
Thanks for the questions. There are no books that I know that address anything but dated and superficial approaches to oil industry investing. Your best approach on the Alaska company is to contact a consultant to help you evaluate its claims. If you are asking about Pantheon, I have consulted for them and may be able to help. I am also quite current on what is happening in AK.
Best,
Art
Hi Art
Thanks for your response. It is certainly Pantheon and based on my ‘amateur’ knowledge they argue they can trade in profit even if oil falls to under $32 which seems interesting in this market. I will contact you by email via your site privately? Adam
[email protected]
hi Art
Also, based on your discussion, can you recommend any books for someone that has an interest in the oil market that wishes to learn more?
thanks again
Adam
Credit where credit is due. On the price of oil, you nailed it again Art.
At minute 34+ you said using your Comparative Inventory info oil was $4-5 too low. This was on 28th October when WTI was around $38. Today, and since 2 weeks or so, WTI is around $46. This increase of around $8 is even higher than you predicted, and the extra upside is maybe in good part due to the positive vaccine news.
Jonathan,
Thanks for that comment.
Comparative inventory has decreased quite a bit in the 6 weeks since that interview and price changes accordingly along the yield curve. At today’s CI, $45 is the correct price based on the yield curve.
Best,
Art