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I have little doubt that China’s oil demand will increase but what if it does not increase as much or as fast as some analysts expect?

It is tempting to assume that inadequate investment will lead to much higher oil prices. But what if demand follows supply lower as it did during the last five oil-price shocks from 1974 to 2020?

High oil prices are a failing grade for the system. The oil bulls either do not understand this or are so selfishly motivated that they don’t care if the world is in trouble as long as they are making money.

The oil-price decrease over the last month shows that investors have finally learned what the market has known since June. Supply is not “incredibly tight.”

Oil is a complex part of a complex system. OPEC+ is trying to play God with the world’s master resource. That is an arrogant fool’s errand.

The world is in energy shock. A major economic contraction seems inevitable. The world order that has existed since the end of World War II is ending. It’s a lot to take in.

Old-paradigm analysts believe that oil demand must revert to ever-higher levels which supply simply cannot meet. In fact, the opposite is true. The correct oil paradigm is supply-driven and price-constrained.

The narrative is that U.S. oil consumption has recovered from 2020 is false. Demand remains ~750 kb/d less than in 2019 & transport fuel consumption has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels.

The timing and degree of demand destruction varies for each cycle of oil price and inflation increase but it occurs within every cycle since 1972.

The trajectory of oil prices has changed course since early March and it is downward.