- April 6, 2021
- Posted by: Art Berman
- Category: The Petroleum Truth Report
Last week I wrote that the the oil price rally was ending. To some it may look like a price collapse now. I don’t think so but the price rally is clearly over for a while.
Today, WTI futures price fell -$2.80 (-5%) and Brent fell -$1.45 (-2%). The spreads, however, are revealing.
The WTI 12-month spread fell -$0.92 from $3.65 last Thursday to $2.73 today (Figure 1). That’s a -25% drop in one business day. The spread has fallen -$1.89 (-41%) since March 29. It has decreased -$3.77 since March 5. That’s the biggest drop since prices began to collapse in early 2020.
Front-month price moved to its lowest level in more than 2 months at $58.65. The forward curve is in prompt-month contango and its term structure is flatter than it’s been for weeks (Figure 2). At the same time, it doesn’t look like a collapse in this context, at least not yet.
Brent 12-month spreads reversed today from the lowest level since January last week. The spread increased +$0.48 from $2.42 to $2.90 on Monday, April 5 (Figure 3). That looks less dire than WTI spreads..
Both WTI and Brent prices are about +$0.60 to $0.70 higher in early trading as I write at 10:00 p.m. Houston time. I don’t think prices are collapsing but it is improbable that they will regain March highs any time soon.
The rally was over a few weeks ago but until late last week, there was hope it might resume its upward momentum. That seems unlikely for now. I doubt that the Saudi oil minister is feeling too good about OPEC+’s decision last week to increase output and his decision to raise Asian prices.
.Sorry Mr. ART where can I find links in reference to brent and wti oil spreads ??
Tommaso,
Quandl CL1 data: https://www.quandl.com/data/CHRIS/MCX_CL1-Crude-Oil-Futures-Continuous-Contract-1-CL1-Front-Month
Quandl CL12 data: https://www.quandl.com/data/CHRIS/CME_CL12-Crude-Oil-Futures-Continuous-Contract-12-CL12
Subtract them to get the spread.
Best,
Art
I believe it was a couple months ago (?) that you were thinking the price of oil would likely start moving up in May/June time frame? Am I mistaken or have you revised your position due to the Saudi action and/or the price spreads as explained above?
Peter,
In my December 1, 2020 post “HOW HIGH WILL OIL PRICES GO? WHAT THE MARKET KNOWS”, I stated “Previous price-volume excursions suggest that WTI could go as high as $60 per barrel if markets continue to feel supply urgency. At the same time, that history does not suggest that prices will be permanently higher.”
I didn’t put a time line on that.
The recent OPEC+ decision led to somewhat lower prices but I doubt a decision to maintain cuts would have resulted in higher prices–price had already decreased from its peak in early March weeks before the OPEC+ meeting.
Best,
Art