Oil Comparative Inventory

Analysts propose all kinds of explanations for why oil prices have fallen since late September. They are all somewhat true but the real reason is that comparative inventory (C.I.) has…

WTI price has fallen from the 20-day average to the lower limit of the Bollinger bands since last week.

WTI Price has fallen from the upper limit of the Bollinger bands to the 20-day average since last week.

WTI price has moved above the upper limit of the Bollinger bands so a correction is more likely than not.

Oil price increase has stalled at the upper limit of the Bollinger bands and was unaffected by the bullish storage report this week.

Market fundamentals were mixed but sentiment seems to have repressed the banking crisis for now and has moved backs back to the China demand meme.

The range-bound price situation that dominated oil markets since late 2022 appears to have ended with much higher price volatility.

Traders & journalists will find reasons to paper over the seriousness of the banking crisis but the truth is that WTI prices should be $60 based on inventory levels.

Market fundamentals remain bearish as the range of WTI over-pricing moved up from $12.50-$17.50 last week to $15.50 to $20.50 this week.

The range of WTI over-pricing moved down from $16.50-$20.50 last week to $12.50-$17.50 this week.

Everything about fundamentals indicates that WTI is $16.00-$20.00 over-priced.

Comparative inventory increased the most since early April 2020 and is now more than the 5-year average.