Alex Epstein’s Fossil Future Flames Out on Climate Change

Energy Aware

In his book Fossil Future, Alex Epstein wants us to believe that using more—not less—fossil fuel will make the world a better place. He fails. Badly.

Epstein is good at explaining why everyone else is wrong but not very good at explaining why he is right.

He dedicates much of Fossil Future to the great benefits of fossil fuels that he already presented in his earlier book The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels. That was a very unoriginal thesis in 2014 and it has not become more original with time. No one with even a superficial knowledge of energy needs Alex Epstein to tell them that much of human progress is because of fossil fuels. Not today, not 150 years ago.

He wastes a lot of time in Fossil Future trying to convince us that there is a deep state conspiracy called the “knowledge system” that has distorted everything we hear about fossil fuel and climate change. Experts, governments, international agencies and the press cannot be trusted. They ignore the benefits of fossil fuels and want to impoverish humanity by forcing renewable energy on the public despite its inferiority to coal, oil and natural gas. They are anti-human.

In an earlier post, I documented Epstein’s absurd proposition that everyone is wrong about energy except him, and how his entire approach and evaluation framework is based on a series of straw man fallacies.

Now, I will examine his case that climate change is not a big deal—that it is “mild and manageable”—and that higher levels of atmospheric CO2 are necessary for human flourishing.

Climate Change is Manageable

Epstein thinks that threats from climate change are greatly exaggerated. There has been amazing progress overcoming climate threats by what he calls “climate mastery.” By this he means that hydrocarbon-powered technology will find solutions to climate change.

The proof, he says, is in the already drastic reduction of climate-related deaths which is completely ignored by everyone except him.

The evidence for this unique observation is found in a single graph shown in Figure 1 (his Figure 7.1). It turns out, he says, that climate-related deaths have plummeted over the last 100 years in spite of rising levels of atmospheric CO2. Humans are winning the war over any negative side-effects of climate change.

Figure 1. More Fossil Fuel Use, kPLummeting Climate-Related Disaster Deaths. Source: Alex Epstein Fossil Future Figure 7.1

The problem is that the graph does not show climate-related deaths. It shows deaths from natural disasters.

Figure 2 shows the details from my research behind the deaths in Epstein’s figure. The overall pattern of decreasing deaths is similar in both graphs but climate-change has nothing to do with it. Rather, the leading causes are drought, floods, earthquakes, storms and volcanic activity. Earthquakes and volcanic activity are unrelated to climate change. Drought, floods and storms are weather-related, and not climate-related causes of death.

Figure 2. What Alex Epstein represents as “Climate-Related Deaths” are really deaths from “natural disasters” that include “weather disasters.” Decrease in deaths over time because of better prediction & relief efforts. Source: Our World In Data & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

Epstein’s own definitions show that. Weather, he says, is a short term phenomenon that ordinarily lasts a few hours or a few days. In the case of drought, it may last several years.

For something to be a symptom of climate change, it must persist for approximately 30 years, according to Epstein.

Weather: The atmospheric conditions, especially temperatures and precipitation, in a given area at a given time.

Climate: The longer-term (usually thirty-year) weather trends in a given region, including what range of temperatures there is and what frequency and range of precipitation there is.

Alex Epstein, Fossil Future

His evidence for climate mastery is inadmissible because all it shows is that weather-related deaths have decreased over time.

So much for climate mastery and the idea that climate change is manageable.

More CO2 is Needed for Human Flourishing

Epstein believes that a warmer world with higher CO2 levels will be a better, greener world with more human flourishing.

“Human flourishing requires that CO2 emissions increase.”
–Alex Epstein, Fossil Future

In order to believe this bizarre claim, we must accept his conspiracy theories about how the knowledge system distorts the truth. We must reject the 88,000 peer-reviewed climate papers published since 2012 that do not support his position.

The knowledge system, he says, ignores the benefits of carbon dioxide. Those benefits may have been a recent discovery for Alex Epstein but every scientist has known about them since Joseph Priestly described photosynthesis 200 years ago.

Epstein bases his case for better living through higher levels of CO2 on three pieces of evidence.

For Exhibit A, he cites the work of The Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, and shows photos of a tree whose size increased with higher levels of CO2 (Figure 3, his Figure 8.1). That’s some powerful science.

Figure 3. The Fertilizer Effect In Action. Source: Craig ldso, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change.

No one disagrees that CO2 has a fertilizer effect but that’s not what the CO2 debate is about. It’s about rising temperature and the negative effects that increased temperature would have on life, crop yields, water supply and sea level.

Incredibly, Epstein only talks about temperature in 10 of the 427 pages of text in Fossil Future.

For Exhibit B, he introduces a geological time scale showing temperature and CO2 levels (Figure 4, his Figure 9.2). He points out that CO2 is near historical low levels over geological time, and that the correlation between temperature and CO2 are not conclusive.

The first problem with the graph is its scale. The x-axis covers nearly 600 million years but human civilization is less than 5,000 years old so there is no detail for our history. In fact, the last increment on the x-axis covers more than 10,000 years.

Figure 4. CO2 and Temperature Used to Be Much Higher, but They’re Not Consistently Correlated. Sources: Nasif Nahle /2009/; C.R. Scotese /2002/; W.F. Ruddiman /2011); Pagani et al. /2005).

Figure 5 from my research shows the last 10,000-year increment in Figure 4. It reveals a giant spike in CO2 concentrations beginning around 1800 when humans started using fossil fuels. Now that we know the truth, we can go back and see increases in both CO2 and temperature on the far lower right of Figure 4 that Epstein failed to mention. That’s a big problem for his case that more CO2 is not only good but necessary.

Figure 5. World CO2 levels have increased +43% since 1900 and +14% since 2000. Source: Our World in Data & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

The second problem with his graph is the strong correlation of changes in global temperature and average atmospheric carbon from 1800 to the present (Figure 6). Nothing inconclusive there. Correlations of real-world data don’t get much better.

Figure 6. Yearly temperature compared to the twentieth-century average (red and blue bars) from 1880–2021, based on data from NOAA NCEI, plus atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations (gray line): 1880-1958 from IAC, 1959-2019 from NOAA ESRL. Original graph by Dr. Howard Diamond (NOAA ARL), and adapted by NOAA

This relationship is well-known and dozens of versions of it are available with the simplest web search. The fact that Epstein does not show or explain this powerful counterpoint to his claim of “inconclusive correlation” is dishonest.

Climate Change is Mild

At this point, Alex Epstein invites us to join him on journey into a wondrous land whose boundaries are that of imagination.

He tells us that

“Life on Earth thrived at far higher CO2 levels and temperatures in the past…Okay, dinosaurs could live back then–but could anything else?

“Yes, our evolutionary ancestors lived back then.

Alex Epstein, Fossil Future

I would like him to explain exactly which of our human ancestors lived during the period of elevated CO2 and temperatures from 250 to 50 million years ago along with the dinosaurs.

It’s a popular trope among climate deniers that life was just fine for dinosaurs so there should be no problem for humans as climate change proceeds. There are rich and abundant species of plants and animals living under the sea so, by the same logic, rising sea level shouldn’t be a problem either.

The truth is that dinosaur biology gave them a had a vastly different tolerance to temperature and CO2 that humans do not have. There may have been as many as 20 million dinosaurs on earth at their peak during the Jurassic period about 60 million years ago. These animals were either solitary hunter-gatherers or lived in small herds.

There are now 8 billion humans living in a complexly connected civilization that relies on global supply chains to move goods and services all around the planet. Biological differences aside, the comparison is absurd.

But Epstein blasts right through this contradiction and tries to show that it is impossible for current CO2 concentrations to increase to levels at the time of the dinosaurs.

“There is no near-term mechanism of getting anywhere close to even historical CO2 levels–let alone far higher levels where life on Earth flourished for millions of years.”

Alex Epstein, Fossil Future

He doesn’t understand that comparing the present and near-future for humans to conditions for now-extinct creatures in the deep geological past is simply irrelevant and does nothing to make his case.

For his climate-change finale, Epstein introduces Exhibit C. This is a predictive model that shows a series of sensitivity cases for the relationship between CO2 levels and degrees of warming (Figure 7, his Figure 9.3).

He does not explain the source of these curves. That is journalistically dishonest especially because this graph is the centerpiece of his argument that climate change is not a big deal.1

In addition, he ruthlessly disparaged predictive models in earlier parts of the book and does it again just a few pages after he uses an undocumented predictive model to argue his case.

For Epstein, the point of Figure 7 is that a doubling of the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere only results in about a 1°C increase in global temperature.

Figure 7. Different Estimates of CO2 Climate Sensitivity. Source: Alex Epstein.

According to him, that’s no big deal.

“From a human flourishing perspective, this is a mild effect.

“This is not an amount of warming that would be cause for concern–especially given that we haven’t doubled CO2 even once since 1850 and, even under extremely high emission scenarios, aren’t expected to until the second half of the century.”

Alex Epstein, Fossil Future

The problem with Figure 7 is that it is inconsistent with the observed relationship between temperature and CO2 concentrations. Global temperature has increased +1.6° Celsius with only a +35% increase in CO2 concentration since 1900 (My research, Figure 8).

Temperature has increased 60% more than 1°C with only one-third of a doubling in CO2. This is history, not a model. Whoops.

Figure 8. Global temperature has increased +1.6° Celsius from the 1900-1950 average with only a +35% increase in CO2 concentration over the same period. Source: Our World in Data, Columbia University & Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc.

The centerpiece of his entire thesis—“that the well-established greenhouse effect of CO2 should be no object of concern whatsoever”— just bombed in a big way.

Fossil Future Flames Out on Climate Change

I mostly agree with Epstein about the benefits of fossil fuels and the shortcomings of renewable energy. I disagree with him on almost everything he says about climate change.

But it’s not a matter of agreement or disagreement because there is simply no substance to his arguments about climate change.

Reading Fossil Future was a painful experience for me not because of Epstein’s positions but because the book is flawed and dishonest journalism. He never presents the views of people with alternative perspectives or viewpoints except to attack them as enemies of humanity.

Fossil Future is a ponderous manifesto of Alex Epstein’s grievances against the scientists who have delivered a message about climate change that no one likes to hear. It is an angry criticism of the institutions and policy makers who are now beginning to act on climate research. It is a futile attempt to change the overwhelming momentum of public policy away from energy sources that threaten human flourishing. It is desperate and impossible appeal to return to a better and seemingly less complicated time when fossil fuels were king. That, I suppose, is its appeal.

1I followed a nearby text footnote to a 1998 geophysics paper on radiative forcing that did not include this graph.

Art Berman is anything but your run-of-the-mill energy consultant. With a résumé boasting over 40 years as a petroleum geologist, he’s here to annihilate your preconceived notions and rearm you with unfiltered, data-backed takes on energy and its colossal role in the world's economic pulse. Learn more about Art here.

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  1. […] has a very narrow focus so naturally he is perplexed. Like Alex Epstein, he frames our predicament as a cosmic conflict between the forces of good versus evil energy […]

  2. EnergyAndEntropy on April 19, 2023 at 3:00 am

    War-torn oil-rich nations, from Iraq to Libya, Syria, Yemen, Russia, Ukraine, Sudan and others, pay the hidden price of mass campaigns – like what’s called the Climate Change Movement – in blood and depopulation…

    The Climate Change Movement never stood against wars – no matter how wars are fossil fuels intensive….

    Thermodynamically, there is no such thing called Capitalism – but rather a world in an Energy Musical Chairs Game – since the Brits have invaded Iraq
    for the first time in 1914 – for its resources – the rest is history…

    In any system of energy, Control is what consumes energy the most.

    No energy store holds enough energy to extract an amount of energy equal to the total energy it stores.
    No system of energy can deliver sum useful energy in excess of the total energy put into constructing it.
    This universal truth applies to all systems.

    Energy, like time, flows from past to future“.


    • Art Berman on April 25, 2023 at 5:06 pm

      Thanks you for those interesting links!

      All the best,


  3. Robert lowrey on April 7, 2023 at 5:51 pm

    Even were Epstein correct, he completely ignores the limited amounts of these fuels (which, if they are indeed derived from fossils, should be referred to as bio-fuels). Peak oil may be a derided concept that has “gone the way of the ‘flat-earth society’”, but drilling in the Arctic (impossible without climate change) and the North Sea, as well as the tar sands, and the fracturing going on in more than half of the US States, are the best arguments against the simple-minded dismissal of Peak Oil. If there is no such thing, why not get all that oil the globe is awash in instead of using ever-escalating amounts of energy to get a product that contains @ least 7-8% LESS energy density than the oil they’re purportedly replacing? Okay, okay, maybe it is because the US waged War in Iraq to KEEP their oil in the ground, attacks Venezuela to keep their hydrocarbons off the world market, and lured RUSSIA into its Iraq-like War against Ukraine, all,to make the U.S. Rate again as a world oil supplier, but none of those things would’ve happened w/out the US reaching Peak Oil long before any of the other global oil producers.

    • Carey King on May 17, 2023 at 7:09 pm

      I like this kind of argument you are making. If fossil fuels aren’t finite and cost energy to extract, then why do geopolitical affairs affect our decisions when we could supposedly just extract the entire global use of 100 MMBBL/day of oil from the same “infinite” supply underneath the U.S. (for example)? Finite resources and finite rates (holds for everything else too!).

  4. Vince Matthews on March 27, 2023 at 4:33 pm

    Good to see that you are still active and “in the game.”
    Some of my own statistics:
    When I was 9 years old the UN started making population estimates and concluded there were 2.6 billion people in the world. US contribution was 148 million.
    Last November, they estimated the planet passed 8.0 billion folks–12 years earlier than their prediction a decade ago. WHO estimates 800 million people go to bed hungry every night. In 2018, the IEA estimated that ~1 billion people do not have access to electricity. The United States is the third-most-populous country on the globe at ~340 million people. Yet, China and India together have 8.5 times the U.S. population. Median population projections for 2050 are 10 billion. I’m curious who is going to feed, educate, and provide health care to those extra 2 billion folks. Is it possible that too many people might be the real problem?
    In 2023, IEA estimated that in order to achieve “NetZero 2050,” world mineral production would have to increase by six times over today’s rate by the year 2040. I doubt that you can find many knowledgeable folks who think that is a possibility.
    Best, Vince

  5. Geoff on March 24, 2023 at 4:28 am

    Thanks Art,

    Dr James Hansen, together with 14 co-authors, submitted their scientific paper to Oxford Open Climate Change in Dec 2022 titled Global warming in the pipeline. With permission of Editor-in-Chief Eelco Rohling, the submitted version is available on arXiv, the website used by physicists for preprints. The paper’s Abstract begins with:

    Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity is at least ~4°C for doubled CO₂ (2×CO₂), with likely range 3.5-5.5°C. Greenhouse gas (GHG) climate forcing is 4.1 W/m² larger in 2021 than in 1750, equivalent to 2×CO₂ forcing. Global warming in the pipeline is greater than prior estimates. Eventual global warming due to today’s GHG forcing alone – after slow feedbacks operate – is about 10°C. Human-made aerosols are a major climate forcing, mainly via their effect on clouds. We infer from paleoclimate data that aerosol cooling offset GHG warming for several millennia as civilization developed. A hinge-point in global warming occurred in 1970 as increased GHG warming outpaced aerosol cooling, leading to global warming of 0.18°C per decade. Aerosol cooling is larger than estimated in the current IPCC report, but it has declined since 2010 because of aerosol reductions in China and shipping. Without unprecedented global actions to reduce GHG growth, 2010 could be another hinge point, with global warming in following decades 50-100% greater than in the prior 40 years.

    With current policies, per the Hansen et. al. pre-print (see Fig 19), global warming should breach the +1.5 °C warming threshold by the end of the 2020s, and +2 °C likely by 2050.

    In the longer-term, including the slow feedbacks (over centuries to millennia timescales), the warming level will be significantly higher – about +10 °C for a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration, per Hansen et. al. pre-print paper.

    I think it would be foolish to bet that Dr Hansen & colleagues are significantly wrong on this issue.

    • Art Berman on March 24, 2023 at 4:54 pm

      I completely agree, Geoff.

      Talk to Alex Epstein and his disciples.



      • Geoff on March 25, 2023 at 12:53 am

        Thanks Art.

        I recently became aware of the YouTube video titled Sea Level Rise Can No Longer Be Stopped, What Next? – with John Englander, duration 1:18:01, of oceanographer John Englander’s presentation at The Royal Institution, London UK, on 11 Feb 2019. Sea level rise can no longer be stopped, so it is urgent that we commence intelligent adaptation as a high priority, argues John Englander.

        IMO, there are some informative graphs, maps & key points from time intervals:

        * 0:18:48: Stacked graphs of Atmospheric CO₂ Concentration vs Global Temperature vs Sea Level for period 400,000 years to present day;
        * 0:22:09: Maps of Florida USA today, 20,000 years ago & 120,000 years ago;
        * 0:24:24: Graph of sea level change over last 20,000 years;
        * 0:26:30: Graph of sea level rise, from 1850 to present day;
        * 0:27:20: Graph of sea level measurements from satellites, from 1993 to 2017;
        * 0:51:02: Graph of actual sea level rise exceeding projections, from 1990 onwards;
        * 0:51:57: Graph of sea level rise projections to 2100;
        * 0:56:46: Key points.

        Alex Epstein says: “This is not an amount of warming that would be cause for concern…

        The UK’s Institution of Mechanical Engineers (IMechE) published their report on 12 Nov 2019 titled Rising Seas: The Engineering Challenge, that included the “Englander 9-Box Matrix” (see Table 3 in the IMechE report), that provides a straight-forward guidance for planning for future flooding from rising seas, in addition to whatever current flooding a location may be experiencing.

        IMechE suggests preparing for at least 1 metre of sea level rise by year 2100, and plan for up to 3 metres. I think that’s cause for serious concern given there are many, many homes, livelihoods and infrastructure that would be at risk.

        I think it would be interesting to see/hear Alex Epstein live debating someone like oceanographer John Englander.

      • FS on March 27, 2023 at 11:19 am

        Yes, Alex Epstein is right. Paris Accord and Climate Change are scam to scare the world and try to kill the fossil fuel industry. 100,000 scientists do not mean what they said is right. Greta is a kid who skipped school days as a paid activist. Who could a kid understand about science and yet earns or have more money that the rest of the working people… Figure that out…

  6. Adolfo Fox on March 23, 2023 at 3:46 pm

    Alex Epstein is right and you are not.

    • Art Berman on March 24, 2023 at 4:56 pm

      Your opinion has no more value than mine.

      I have shown DATA to support my opinion. YOU have shown nothing.

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