Gas Comparative Inventory

If you are confused by low natural gas prices then comparative inventory is your friend. Companies have over-produced gas, storage is exploding, and prices have fallen. Comparative inventory (C.I.) makes…

Price-volume data continues to suggest that natural gas is about +10% over-priced for current inventory levels.

High LNG exports are affecting natural gas prices more than inventories for now.

Forecasts don’t offer much hope that the present pattern of low gas pricing will change in April.

Natural gas is correctly priced in the low-$2.00 range based on the comparative inventory yield curve.

Natural gas futures spreads suggest a more optimistic price outlook than front-month prices.

Degree day and consumption data suggest a lower-than-normal withdrawal and a C.I. increase in next week’s gas storage report.

I expect a slightly lower-than-normal natural gas withdrawal in next week’s storage report, and a smaller increase in C.I.

I expect another lower-than-normal gas storage withdrawal and an C.I. increase in next week’s. I expect C.I. to increase more than it did this week.

The collapse in gas prices appears to be over. Both futures and spot prices are increasing toward $3.00 per mmBtu.

The collapse in gas prices still appears to have found a temporary bottom at about $2.40 as prices have moved back to the 20-day average for the first time since December 2022.

I expect another week of warmer-than-normal weather and weak natural gas storage withdrawals.