Art Berman
Lowering CO2 emissions while also increasing energy consumption and GDP is an impossible dream.
Rising oil prices would result in a substantial slump in the global economy and deflation of commodity prices including oil.
Unless a detente is quickly arranged, oil prices could potentially retrace the early 2022 rally toward $120 per barrel
Birol should but will not state that the only solution to climate change is greatly reduce consumption of all energy, not just fossil fuels.
The additional land use for wnd and solar is approximately 24 million square kilometers or an area about the combined size of Russia and Australia. The cost would be more than $51 trillion.
The IMF’s message is opportunistic, journalistically dishonest and more appropriate to Fox News than to an international opinion leader and supposedly honest broker.
What perplexes me most about mainstream analysts is their certitude about reductionist cause-and-effect axioms that become memes when enough of them repeat what the other said.
I do not see any structural reason for longer-term high prices and correlative pressure to increase supply. The correct oil paradigm is supply-driven and price-constrained.
Simply switching from fossil fuels to renewable energy is not a solution to climate change, certainly not in our time window of urgency.
The idea that electric vehicles may displace gasoline reflects a fundamental ignorance about the oil refining process. The idea that a green energy transition is reshaping society ignores the way the world really works.
I just don’t see any extraordinary structural change about to happen that is outside of what is normal and expected for oil markets.
Net Zero is a naive and unscientific fantasy that is largely untethered to physical reality.