Art Berman
The oil-price decrease over the last month shows that investors have finally learned what the market has known since June. Supply is not “incredibly tight.”
There is little flexibility to modify the kind of crude oil input or distillate yield once the refinery is built. Suggestions by some people to re-design, to build new refineries, or to use new technologies to boost diesel output are not realistic.
I’m not suggesting that everyone needs to become an energy expert. I’m saying that memes are a lazy approach to something too important to be lazy about.
Oil is a complex part of a complex system. OPEC+ is trying to play God with the world’s master resource. That is an arrogant fool’s errand.
The energy debate assumes that there is some sort of black-and-white choice between fossil and renewable energy. That is not only wrong—it’s impossible.
Lower carbon emissions are critical for the future. That does not mean we can pick a fantasy and make it happen.
Europe’s energy crisis, the war in Ukraine, and escalation of U.S. – Chinese tensions over Taiwan are all part of a struggle to dominate remaining fossil resources as well as new energy sources.
The world is in energy shock. A major economic contraction seems inevitable. The world order that has existed since the end of World War II is ending. It’s a lot to take in.
Price Abdulaziz bin Salman’s comments this week mean that Russia’s interests are our interests and the West’s problems are not our problems. Welcome to the Second Cold War!
The rate of change in energy intensity is now approaching zero. Future GDP will not increase without substantial increases in energy consumption. That is bad news for climate change and for earth’s ecosystem.
Old-paradigm analysts believe that oil demand must revert to ever-higher levels which supply simply cannot meet. In fact, the opposite is true. The correct oil paradigm is supply-driven and price-constrained.
Old-paradigm analysts believe that oil demand must revert to ever-higher levels which supply simply cannot meet. In fact, the opposite is true. The correct oil paradigm is supply-driven and price-constrained.