Art Berman
The narrative is that U.S. oil consumption has recovered from 2020 is false. Demand remains ~750 kb/d less than in 2019 & transport fuel consumption has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
The timing and degree of demand destruction varies for each cycle of oil price and inflation increase but it occurs within every cycle since 1972.
The trajectory of oil prices has changed course since early March and it is downward. Analysts continue talking about incredibly tight supply and prices going to $185 or higher but WTI…
Peak oil has come back to haunt us. Shale plays bought the world another decade of supply beyond what anyone imagined twenty years ago. Those plays are far from depleted but enthusiasm for oil is.
The level of oil investment over the last several years has been exactly right based on market price and investor expectations. The oil business is not a service industry nor is it part of the Consumer Protection Agency.
This is going to fundamentally re-structure the economy & probably the world order. Buckle up. It’s going to be a wild ride!
We are now experiencing the fourth oil shock. The removal of 5 mmb/d of Russian crude oil and condensate exports would be the biggest structural change to the oil market since the Iran-Iraq war in 1980.
Recent events in Ukraine introduce unthinkable uncertainty into energy markets and the world order that may emerge. Geopolitical consequences are likely to be the most serious in decades. Whatever the military outcome, the Russian economy will probably be ruined.
For its many merits, people deserve better information and guidance than Unsettled provides.
Let’s be realistic about what is feasible in the limited time available before energy supply becomes an even bigger crisis.
Bin Salman’s dangerous error remains waiting for demand before increasing supply. His strategy was a recipe for losing control.
How much oil is left and what are future prospects for oil production and the economy?