What Would Captain Kirk Do About Hormuz?
Control oil, and you control nations, observed Henry Kissinger. Right now, that’s what Iran is doing in a way Kissinger would not have imagined.
The prevailing narrative is that Iran has been weakened by U.S. and Israeli strikes. But the opposite is true. As long as Iran can disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz, it holds leverage over oil, LNG, fertilizer, and food supply chains—and by extension, the global economy.
Before the war, Iran looked weak. Its proxies were degraded, its economy was faltering, and internal unrest was rising. Now, despite military losses, Iran is arguably the most powerful nation in the world for energy. That alone gives it power far beyond its battlefield position.
This is the central paradox: a militarily weakened Iran that is strategically stronger. It can impose global costs without winning the war, and as long as that holds, it has little incentive to negotiate.
Michael Every frames Trump’s dilemma through the Star Trek “Kobayashi Maru” simulation—a no-win scenario. Act and you lose; don’t act and you lose. Captain Kirk’s solution wasn’t to choose better—it was to change the rules.
Applied here, the Kobayashi Maru means not choosing between escalation and retreat, but altering the structure of the problem. Every suggests redirecting global energy flows—pushing U.S. and Western Hemisphere supply, reducing reliance on the Persian Gulf, even linking energy security to broader deals with China.
It’s a clever reframing that has some limits but the instinct is right: this isn’t a conventional war. It’s a contest over leverage, time, and tolerance for pain.
Hormuz is not just a physical problem—it’s a psychological fixation to be broken. As long as markets, policymakers, and media treat the Strait as the center of the energy universe, Iran holds the initiative.
Escalation to a regional war does not solve the problem—it amplifies it. Even a military “success” would not eliminate disruption risk, and could deepen the economic shock. A more realistic path is managing disruption rather than trying to eliminate it. That means accepting partial flows, persistent risk, and higher prices—while shifting attention elsewhere.
The objective, therefore, is not simply to reopen Hormuz, but to make it less central. That begins with signaling, not barrels.
A credible shift toward Western Hemisphere supply as Every suggests—anchored by the U.S. and Canada—would not replace Gulf flows in the short term. But it would begin to reshape expectations about the future structure of supply.
The U.S. could revert to Trump’s Energy Dominance stance from early in his presidency. Use the Defense Production Act to accelerate domestic drilling, mobilize capital through institutions like Ex-Im Bank to boost output across the Western Hemisphere.
The fastest credible shift away from Hormuz doesn’t run through Texas—it runs through Canada. This would not be a quick fix, but a signal that the system is changing.
Markets price the future before the barrels exist. If capital begins to flow toward a system that marginally reduces dependence on Hormuz, then Iran’s leverage begins to erode—even if disruption continues. This would likely provoke more aggressive behavior by Iran in the near term. A system built on attention does not gently accept irrelevance.
The message would be psychological as much as physical: Hormuz matters, but it’s not the only game in town. Over time, expectations might shift. Flows resume unevenly, risk remains embedded, and prices stay elevated—but panic gives way to adaptation. But the current path already leads to escalating disruption with no clear resolution.
The alternative is not stability. It is a different kind of instability—one that gradually shifts leverage away from the chokepoint and back to the system’s capacity to adapt at the margin.
That’s the real Kobayashi Maru move.
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Art I think your comment about proven reserves is misleading. Do you think that if the U.S had that much oil cheaply available it would still be attacking Iran and Venezuela? Yes the world is awash in oil but not at the higher price needed to get it out. Finalization cannot substitute for energy.
Daniel,
Look at the data instead of pontificating to an oil expert about what’s misleading.
https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/crudeoilreserves/
A proved reserve in the U.S. means it has been audited and determined to be capable of producing a 10% present value at current oil prices.
Do some work before embarrassing yourself about things you know nothing about.
you are a right prick.
Kobayashi Maru
Are you from another planet? I’ve never heard anyone say “right prick” Is there a left prick and a wrong prick also?
I enjoy such useful comments that force me to expand my Overton Window on the misuse of language.
Art do you believe in the tooth fairy too? Oil should be $140 right now if all things were honest but the markets are manipulated and we are being lied to. The system as quaint as it has been and given you a great life is coming to and end. You sound like a liberal cornucopian who believes that solar panels can save the day except you think that we can keep printing oil to keep this game going…you are wrong old man. Sitting in your comfortable slippers and typing away while younger generations have discovered that the system no longer works. Keep praying that the system keeps up so that younger people keep playing the game and you enjoy drinking wine in your retirement…..”ok boomer”!!!!
Daniel,
I’ve stated my professional opinion about your previous comments. My opinion about these latest comments is that you are only interested in hearing views that mirror your own. You won’t find them here because facts get in the way.
Your personal attacks on me for not agreeing with you are childish.
Art
Hi Art,
How do the Canadian tariff’s factor into this calculation? Seems like Trump is doing everything possible to upend this most important alliance. I wish we could side-step the chokepoint as Sun Tzu would surely approve but seems that a lot of factors are still very much in play.
best,
Dave
Dave,
I don’t think there’s much connection between Canadian tariffs and what Trump is doing in Iran right now.
He’s not a complex thinker and just acts impulsively from day-to-day. Tariffs have been his go-to dumb idea for decades so he went-to them first after regaining the White House.
Tariffs are kind of irrelevant after what’s happening in the Middle East. We’ll be lucky to have decent trade without tariffs!
All the best,
Art
Thank you again Art.
There are already talks and plans to turn to the US oil and LNG market as one of the solutions (oime asian countries turning to Russia).
However, as far as I know the vast majority of the US light oil is being refined in the Midwest and the Gulf. How is this refining capacity being threatened or even blocked due to the conflict? Is there any other refining capacity somewhere else?
Because at the moment it looks like we are witnessing a cascading domino effect unfolding.
Thank you again.
Best regards
Zoltan,
The US exports about 4 mmb/d so there’s that but my post was about the western hemisphere not just the U.S.
All the best,
Art
What the US and its Allies failed to acknowledge is, that Iran would fight an asymmetric war and their strategy so far has been absolutely brilliant. This is a 21st century version of David and Goliath. The answer on what Capt Kirk might do? He would have to accept defeat. The Iranian’s hold all the cards now. They control the Straits of Hormuz and they are doing it with cheap modern technology such as drones and cheap missiles.
Iran will not cede that passage way unless the US and Israel meets its demands and the US nor Israel will not. Iran will continue the respond to attacks by shutting down the global economy. Unless the US gives in to Iran’s demands or decides to use nukes, this looks to be as close to checkmate as you can get.
The Persians go back thousands of years as a civilization and they are a hardened bunch. They will not back down now after being deceived and attacked twice by the US and Israel.
Rodney,
You either didn’t read my post or reject it.
You speak with a level of certitude that is the entire problem with modern thinking.
I recommend reading my post “The End of Certainty”
https://www.artberman.com/blog/the-end-of-certainty/
All the best,
Art
Art, I read all of your stuff and as much as I admire your knowledge with regards to energy I have to say unequivocally based on listening to former CIA Intelligence officers and military commanders that served in Iraq and Afghanistan that the US and Israel over played their hand and did not anticipate Iran’s response. The US and Israel were after regime change and Iran was after removing both from the region.
They do hold all the cards because they are hellbent on taking down the global economy. Evidence today is that Iran has struck more LNG sites in the Gulf region. There is no uncertainty here, when Iran is facing an existential threat from the US and Israel. Expect more escalations until someone cries uncle and it is looking like Israel and the US are going to be saying that, not Iran.
We can agree to disagree my friend. Echo chambers are not healthy.
Rodney,
I don’t see any disagreement that the US and Israel badly miscalculated–I’ve posted that explicitly on X
I don’t think Iran holds all the cards but is in a strong position to disrupt for a while. I expect something to “give” before long to stop or at least slow the destruction in the Gulf. That won’t be in time to save the broader damage to the global economy but the great powers are not going to stand by picking their noses for long.
All the best,
Art
“Use the Defense Production Act to accelerate domestic drilling…”
My impression is that the US is tapped out. Doesn’t putting new holes in the ground simply poach other nearby wells?
No matter how many straws you put in a glass of water, you still only have a glass of water.
Jan,
Where do you get such ideas? The US has 26 billion barrels of proved reserves whose production could be accelerated with government incentives. The USGS estimates another 100 billion barrels of technically recoverable, undiscovered resources.
The logic in my post was to apply the levers of US power to the western hemisphere, not just the U.S.
All the best,
Art
Another Kobayashi solution is to reframe the value of oil. Oil has been cheap because it has been abundant. Take away the abundance, and the purchase decision focuses more on: “what will this barrel of oil do for me?” For a substance that can replace thousands of hours of human labor, we should be willing to pay a LOT more than $100/barrel. Granted, at $3000/barrel, oil purchases would consume world GDP. But at some point between $100 and $3000/barrel, oil consumption would slow–we would stop leaving lights and computers on at night; we’d plan our commutes and communities smarter; and we would leave some oil behind for my great grandchildren–in short, we’d pay a higher price for consuming a substance as magical as oil (or natural gas, or coal).
Of course, no politician is going to vote for higher energy prices. So, Kirk is going to have to reprogram some other way. Maybe Captain Trump and the Iranian war will reset the simulator.
Arthur,
Markets control the price of oil. There’s no mechanism other than taxes to increase it.
Trump would fail the entry exam for Starfleet Academy.
All the best,
Art
On pipelines – surely a pipeline (or even better a canal) across UAE from Arabian Gulf to the Arabian Sea would be worth considering. From UAE perspective it would likely also further bolster Dubai’s standing in the world for next few decades.
Or do you think Iran would still maintain continual aggression towards this asset in UAE?
Charles,
There is a pipeline across the UAE to Fujairah.
I have no idea about the future but it’s clear for the present that Iran’s strategy is to create as much disruption as possible.
All the best,
Art
Way to go Art! I like your idea. I was wondering if building pipelines to get around Hormuz would be part of the solution too?
Mark,
There is a pipeline across Saudi Arabia being used now. Its vulnerability is that it goes to the Red Sea which has its own Hormuz–the Bab al Mandeb–that has been disrupted by Houthis for several years.
All the best,
Art
Surely a pipeline (or even better a canal) across UAE from Arabian Gulf to the Arabian Sea would be worth considering. From UAE perspective it would likely also further bolster Dubai’s standing in the world for next few decades.
Or do you think Iran would still maintain continual aggression towards this asset in UAE.
Charlie,
The UAE’s Habshan–Fujairah pipeline (ADCOP) runs ~380–400 km from inland Abu Dhabi to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, allowing crude exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. It has capacity of about 1.5 million b/d—one of the few regional workarounds to chokepoint risk.
All the best,
Art
Art avoids mentioning Iran’s fundamental objective in confronting the illegal US/Israel instigated war is to remove US presence in the Middle East. He also avoids describing Iran’s surprising ability to methodically destroy US military assets in neighboring countries because Iran considers such arrangements are an admission of complicity deserving of attacks. The US overthrew Iran’s government in 1953 and Iranians will not allow this reality to be ignored as the global world order careens toward different arrangements.
Jim,
You can speak to me in the first person.
Blame is not an adult approach to understanding current problems. Why didn’t you include Hillary’s emails or Hunter Biden’s laptop in your laundry list of things that happened in the past and have no practical relevance for today’s reality.
If you don’t like my posts, don’t read them. They’re free so you can’t get a refund.
Well summarized, Art. Comment on how that strategy changes the Russia imbargo narative.
Thanks Andy.
You’ll have to wait for future essays for more answers.
All the best,
Art
Is this the “when you have nothing” then go with fiction stories? The laxck of accuracy and bias here is astounding and it’s exaggerated by looking to Every for ideas who is already a died in the wool capitalist-banker extremist.
Let’s look at the facts here: Iran is not the “aggressor” here; the United States and Israel are the criminal actors in this predicament; in breach of every United Nations Law and Agreement; behaving as unilateral Terror States demanding surrender and total allegiance to their unjustified will; who are both lying about the nuclear status of Iran; lying about Iran being an “evil state”; about an Iran that since 1979 has not ONCE imposed a restriction upon the Strait of Homuz; whose civilians are under attack by the collective west; no less than Gaza civilians were-a war crime;
There is a SINGULAR cause for the Strait of Homuz to be closed – and it is 100% upon Israel and the United States of Amercia and no one else.
THe real solution is for the global community to cut them both down to size–to ostracize these nations until they start acting like decent human beings run their countries. Therefore an embargo on all trade; all finance transactions; banning all travel to and from; withdrawing all Diplomatic Missions from both nations; suspending their membership of the United Nations and removing the USA as a member of the UNSC…. before they do the same thing to CUBA!
That’s the real Kobayashi Maru move someone like Captain Kirk ad Spock would make. Don’t you doubt it Art. Your bias is so extreme you appear to long be capable of seeing reality with any objectivity at all.
Kabayashi Maru,
Time to learn what Kabayashi Maru is about. It’s not a moral debate about who’s right or wrong. It’s about how to reframe a no-win situation.
Your comment is about morality but Kobayashi Maru is about strategy. Moral certainty is the farthest thing from strategy.
Kirk would reprimand you for misrepresenting his accomplishment.
This raises a number of issues Art. What happens to the GCC countries, and what happens to Israel, none of which could survive without exporting Oil/NGas or in Israel’s case without importing Oil/NGas. And then there’s this:
CNN, citing a senior Iranian official, has reported that Iran is considering allowing several oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the unnamed official, the permits would only be granted if the transactions are conducted in the Chinese yuan, the country’s national currency. And I’d assume payment in advance.
What happens to the petrodollar without the GCC buying US treasuries and effectively leasing US’s armies and armaments. If the GCC’s indigenous Arab citizens start to feel poorer and less secure maybe they won’t be so keen on having US forces in their country, maybe they’d be better off with China, China doesn’t play carrot and stick when it comes to a country’s political or religious ideologies, just saying🤔
Barry,
I don’t know the future. My essay was merely a different way of thinking about the Hormuz dilemma.
All the best,
Art
The Kobayashi move is called “Venezuela”
Alex,
The Venezuela “move” was straight-forward and rather conventional. That doesn’t diminish its importance but it was definitely not Kobayashi.
All the best,
Art
I think Michael Every is an extremely intelligent person. I would want him on my side going into any war. I wish he, and others, would use their intelligence to figure out how to stop playing the psychopathic games of geopolitics, instead of how to win them.
Scott,
Michael is a friend and my closest collaborator. We expand either others’ Overton window on what is possible.
All the best,
Art