How the Iran War Ends
Leon Trotsky famously said, “You may not be interested in war, but war may be interested in you.” A variation that fits Trump’s dilemma in the Iran war might be this: you may be interested in peace, but peace may not be interested in you.
One week into this conflict, the situation feels like The Sorcerer’s Apprentice. The apprentice casts a spell to make brooms and buckets do his chores. At first it works. Then the brooms multiply, the water keeps rising, and he has no idea how to stop what he started.
Trump appears to have seen a rare opportunity to eliminate Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and much of Iran’s leadership and took it. In that sense, the strike succeeded. But like the apprentice’s spell, the consequences have gone much farther than expected. The war now has a momentum of its own, and there’s no obvious way to stop it while still calling the outcome a victory.
Trump is clever but he is not a systems thinker. Surely he knew attacking Iran would raise oil and LNG prices. His own comments suggested Operation Epic Fury would not be a brief strike followed by a clean exit. But did he anticipate the possibility that the Strait of Hormuz could be effectively closed? Did he consider the cascading supply-chain effects for oil, natural gas, fertilizer, food, water, and other essentials if the strait were disrupted even briefly? Did he understand how quickly military stockpiles could be depleted and how slowly they can be replaced? We may never know, and it may not matter.
What’s clear is that he’s already laying the groundwork for a way out. His talk of “unconditional surrender” sounds less like a realistic military objective than a rhetorical exit ramp. In practice it means he will declare the war an overwhelming victory whenever he decides it’s over, regardless of the facts on the ground.
Ironically, he may already have achieved several strategic outcomes, whether planned or not. The world has now seen how vulnerable Middle Eastern oil and LNG supplies can be. U.S. supply, by contrast, looks steady. That perception alone could shift global market share. At the same time, the operation sent a message to geopolitical rivals that the United States is willing to use military force, reinforced by the earlier removal of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.
For those reasons, it would not be surprising if Trump begins looking for a way to end this war soon.
The problem is that Iran may not be interested in peace.
More precisely, it’s not even clear who’s in charge in Iran right now. A successor to the Supreme Leader has reportedly been identified, but even under Khamenei the real center of power lay with the security establishment. Now there appear to be signs of tension between the civilian government and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and possibly factions within the IRGC itself. President Pezeshkian recently said Iran would stop attacking neighboring countries. The IRGC immediately contradicted him.
No one outside the system really knows what’s happening. But it’s not unreasonable to think that Iran believes it has performed well enough so far to justify continuing the conflict. Tehran has long assumed that Western societies are unwilling to bear prolonged economic and political pain, while Iran has been hardened by decades of sanctions and conflict. From that perspective, extending the disruption — especially to energy markets — may strengthen its negotiating position.
All of this is speculation. The larger point is simpler: once wars begin, they develop a life of their own. The economic, political, and strategic consequences of what has already happened are unknowable, but given the fragility of global energy and supply systems they are almost certainly large.
Trump may soon look for a way out of the crisis he helped create. Ironically, that could leave Iran holding the stronger hand, at least for the moment.
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The amount of environmental damage to the air, water, and soil in Iran especially in Tehran from the heavy ‘black rain’ fallout from explosions and fires is inconceivable and horrific to me, along with heavy metals and other dangerous toxins everywhere that will undoubtedly spike the cancer rate among children whose immune system are still very fragile. What can we say about ourselves negotiating with false pretenses then suddenly starting this unprovoked war at the bequest of another country, leading us to do this unthinkable act of mass violence causing such enormous suffering?
Douglas,
I agree with you about he human life and environmental comments. I don’t endorse Trump’s tactics but he made the consequences of not making his deal very clear to Iran.
All the best,
Art
A good thing he didn’t attack Scotland ! !
Mike,
Scotland could be next!
All the best,
Art
I still recall the cartoon of Netanyahu and Trump lying on the beach as the new land owners of the Gaza Strip. Let us not forget that Netanyahu wanted to strike Iran, and my guess is that he is promising Trump (and his children) rights to land development. If a few thousand people are killed, infrastructure destroyed, and oil transportation impeded, well, so be it.
Trump is concerned about one thing only: Trump. This country and the rest of the world are just pawns to sacrificed when it suits him.
Thanks for your thoughts, Tina.
Most people who become heads of state or other big organizations (including the Pope) are on the narcissist-psychpath spectrum.
All the best,
Art
No, Tina, (and Art). Trump is seeking to remove Iran from its constant war with the USA. A war that has killed maybe 1,000 of us without any consequences except ineffective economic sanctions. This isn’t about Trump. It’s about defeating an evil state that has gotten away with murder and terror. You think Trump and Netanyahu were cooperating to develop Gaza as a real estate venture? You forget about Hamas murdering Israelis and their babies, doing really evil stuff? You forger about the decades of “death to the USA”? What’s wrong with you people?
Dan,
I take and agree with your points about Iran being a bad actor. Trump is going about the solution in the wrong way because he hasn’t taken the time to understand how to deal with an enemy that doesn’t have similar values. You can’t threaten Iran with force and expect it to concede according the behaviors of western nations.
What’s playing out confirms that. Trump has lost control of the war and given Iran the gift they could not have invented themselves–the opportunity to create global chaos from their front porch.
All the best,
Art
Whenever I run my chainsaw I see how much energy is in oil ,and when I see these wars with endless bombing sorties and fuel depots on fire etc what a utter waste they all are .
………but surely this will all be “over by October ” or its” just a police action” as was said at other points in history
Aaa,
The parties engaged in these wars disagree with you.
I’m not taking a side, just suggesting that an anectodotal perspective is quite narrow.
All the best,
Art
Art –
There is an old saying in the military that once the line of departure is crossed, the ‘plan’ goes into the wastepaper bin.
I spent some time almost half a century ago aboard aircraft carriers operating in the North Arabian Sea post-Shah. A cursory examination of a map reveals that Iran has complete control of the coastline on the north side of the Straits of Hormuz. I always anticipated that in the event of a full-scale war (which this certainly looks like), one of the first things Iran would do would be to close the Straits. If this caught the Trump War Room by surprise, then they are stupid beyond belief.
We have entered uncharted waters and the Trump/Netanyahu team have lost control of events. Trump would do well to request a briefing on the war that Iraq and Iran fought in the 1980s; he would get some real appreciation of just how fanatically the Iranians will fight when pushed to the wall (but I doubt if Trump even knows anything about that war).
Some are predicting that economic pain (and its possible negative impact on the Nov elections) will drive Trump to look for an offramp sooner rather than later. Time will tell.
Ed,
I mostly agree with your comments. That’s why I used The Sorcerer’s Apprentice for my theme.
This Iran adventure feels like a world-changing event even if it ends soon, and for reasons far beyond its geopolitical outcomes.
All the best,
Art
I do not perceive trump as smart, wise or clever. I really don’t. He might be shrewd. In the way that a conman is. He is a lifelong con, a perpetual grifter who has never, not once, faced any severe accounting and he has surely deserved many, and, in fact, prison. As for him calling the shots here, I don’t think he is. I just can’t conceive of that. I think he is a dummard and incapable of conceiving strategy such as warfare. I think his handlers run things and he is then just free to do his freewheeling b.s. where he spouts continual lies and goes on crazy tangents from whatever he’s supposed to be speaking about. Truly, to quote the Exxon-ex, Rex, an effin idiot. He’s just a puppet that the powers that be are using because of his populist demagogue attributes. He’ll go down in history as a dismal failure, a disaster of epic proportions. And I’m not a Dem, lol.
Bill,
I appreciate your comments. I’m not a Trump fan because I think he’s a horrible human being. I don’t agree with you that he’s a puppet because his psychological nature is to be in charge, and he has a long history before politics to draw from.
All the best,
Art
I think that the lack of energy starts to be sizeble and is a cause of the wars we see in many parts of the world. Not a consequence, but a cause of increasing conflicts
Thanks for you comment, Giovanna. I agree.
All the best,
Art
In The Sorcerer’s Apprentice the brooms don’t just multiply, The apprentice brings a single, ordinary broom to life to carry water, but when he chops it in half in a panic, the pieces become new, separate brooms, create an army of brooms. Paul Dukas wrote a great piece of music based on The Sorcerer’s Apprentice story, a symphony’s scherzo, you’ve maybe heard it Art, but if you haven’t you should. But I digress, you depicted Trump as being the Apprentice, I’m just wondering who you had in mind for the Sorcerer, the one who comes back and sorts the mess out with one magic spell.
Now I’m no expert on Iran, it’s culture or Shia Islamism, but as I understand it they don’t want US military bases on any of their or other surrounding Islamic countries. Now you might see this as radical religious fanatism, but is this any different to what Pete Hegseth secretary of war preaches, check out Hegseth religious beliefs oh and he has several prominent tattoos with religious and Crusader-themed imagery, which he has described as expressions of his Christian faith. These tattoos have drawn controversy due to their association with far-right and Christian nationalist groups. If you want a better understanding of this, and this Iran War check out:
“Neutrality Studies — Iran War: Christian Psychoes Running The Show—It’s Not About Regime Change”
And why US is going to loose this war: Prof Professor Xueqin Jiang:
“Predictive History — Game Theory #9: The US-Iran War”🤔
Barry,
Iran and Pete Hegseth’s behaviors are best seen through a military, not a religious, lens. I’m not a fan of either but I’m even less of a fan about what-aboutism arguments.
I haven’t and won’t study Jiang Xueqin’s work but his idea that US actions in Iran could strengthen internal cohesion is hardly original but could still be valid. His credibility falls apart for me with his many unsupported claims and metaphysical speculation.
Surely there are more sources more worthy of your time and attention.
All the best,
Art
I like to inform myself from a wide range of diverse sources, I’m not dogmatic. As a former professional engineer (retired now) I’m familiar with physics, engineering, and having employed people and using client interpersonal skills, and so to some extent I understand human psychology. I look at things through a pragmatic realists lens, enough to understand how this war is most likely going to affect me, my family and friends.
When Militarists fight a war they have some idea, or should have, of when they’ve lost, and at that point, if not forced to, surrender and take the consequences eg unconditional surrender with whatever reparations maybe imposed on them and their country. Most military fighters are fighting for their country and ultimately to keep their family safe and maybe to protect their heritage and building’s, building’s assets their home, hospitals, schools etc. I’m thinking France: French government declared Paris an “open city” and signed the 1940 armistice partly to save Paris and France’s cultural heritage from total destruction.
But when you have people with a deep ideological belief especially one that believes in martyrdom you are up against people that will fight to the death no matter what. I’m sure you’re aware that in WWII the Japanese had a profound ideological belief in their Emperor, and that combined with a revived “Bushido” warrior code, led a significant portion of the Japanese military and civilian population to fight, and often die, rather than surrender.
And of course we know how the war with Japan ended, and that’s where my concern is, with the US/Israeli mad dog psychos conducting this war that they’ll resort to using strategic nuclear weapons, at that point we’re into WWIII. To quote Thomas Hobbes “Hell is the truth seen too late” just in case, I can recommend a great book by Annie Jacobson “Nuclear War – a scenario”😦🤔
Barry,
You assume that people are rational.
All the best,
Art
I’d prefer to think of trump as being shrewd, not smart. These are also two stages behind being wise, which I hope is our ultimate goal as a species. I’m also hoping the smart and wise among us will create a parallel and beneficial system for all, even in reaction to harms we are currently suffering.
Mark,
Whatever words we use to describe Trump, wise is not among them.
All the best,
Art