Newsletter

Energy Aware II

Art Berman Newsletter: July 2021 (2021-6)

By Art Berman | July 6, 2021

When Jeff Currie says that $4 or $5 gasoline is not a problem because the economy is strong, I’m sure he’s right for Goldman Sachs’ clients. I doubt he talks to the second economy in the UK where he works. I wonder if his company isn’t already shorting oil.

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Energy Aware II

Art Berman Newsletter: June 2021 (2021-5)

By Art Berman | June 6, 2021

Investors demanded fiscal & growth discipline from tight oil. Tight oil delivered but investors are uninterested because there’s no growth story. Bait-and-switch.

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Energy Aware II

Art Berman Newsletter: May 2021 (2021-4)

By Art Berman | May 5, 2021

I don’t know if our leaders are incapable of understanding or simply unwilling to publicly state the obvious: significant decarbonization without radical changes in global living standards and population is delusional.

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Energy Aware II

Art Berman Newsletter: April 2021 (2021-3)

By Art Berman | April 1, 2021

We’re near the end of a price increase that began at less than zero back to the where prices were before the pandemic. That’s a recovery not a rally.

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Energy Aware II

Art Berman Newsletter: March 2021 (2021-2)

By Art Berman | March 3, 2021

The obvious conclusions from this crisis are that 27% reliance on wind is a big risk and that Texas’s unregulated electric grid system is a train wreck.

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Energy Aware II

Art Berman Newsletter: February 2021 (2021-1)

By Art Berman | February 5, 2021

2020 has been the most tumultuous year for oil markets and prices of  my career. Despite that, my calls have been quite accurate.

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Energy Aware II

Art Berman Newsletter: December 2020 (2020-11)

By Art Berman | January 7, 2021

It is unlikely that the tight oil business will recover from its 2020 body blow. Saudi Arabia’s decision to cut production by 1 mmb/d tacitly acknowledges that it is unconcerned that higher prices will result in a resurgence of U.S. output.

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Energy Aware II

Art Berman Newsletter: November 2020 (2020-10)

By Art Berman | December 3, 2020

The time from well start to enough production to offset base decline is almost a year—six times EIA’s estimate. It is nearly impossible for U.S. production to be flat at 11 mmb/d for 2021.

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Energy Aware II

Art Berman Newsletter: October 2020 (2020-9)

By Art Berman | November 4, 2020

What the yield curve tells me is that there is little likelihood that oil prices will increase to much above $45 on a sustained basis until the market changes its sense of supply urgency. Until that happens, the yield curve provides good opportunities to play the excursions.

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Energy Aware II

Art Berman Newsletter: September 2020 (2020-8)

By Art Berman | October 5, 2020

Missing barrels are inherent in the supply-demand accounting method that ignores inventory and only considers present period transactions.

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Energy Aware II

Art Berman Newsletter: August 2020 (2020-7)

By Art Berman | September 4, 2020

What concerns me most is what will happen when markets realize that U.S. oil production will fall to levels not seen since the early 2000s.

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Energy Aware II

Art Berman Newsletter: July 2020 (2020-6)

By Art Berman | August 5, 2020

Oil prices are stalled in the low $40s for WTi and mid-$40s for Brent. Producer behavior indicates that prices need to be lower.

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