- April 8, 2017
- Posted by: Art Berman
- Categories: Audio/Video & Articles, Presentations & Publications
Enjoy your articles, keep up the quality work.
Dear Art, it is a good post,as usually. But there is one position I can not agree with. You say that substantial improvement in shale oil production technique and economics is impossible because the industry is so old. Yes, the industry is old. Yes, hydrocarbon production from shales is known for 200 years. But contemporary shale sector is very young. There is still no definition of “shale play”. The term “shale” is used very loose. The exploration model is oversimplified. The operators believe, that horizontal drilling and massive hydrofracturing is the only techniques needed to take care about everything, so there is no need in geological foundations for drilling. I believe that there is a potential for dramatic improvement of “shale” plays economics via improved exploration methodology and drilling/completion techniques. We could discuss it. Best regards
Interesting article… to support that one can question what innovations service companies can bring to the table when they are barely paid to nothing. Pumping more & cheaper sand in longer sections hardly to be called a true new technology….. there is some good stuff on production optimization side is showing up though. For many of us to produce the risk mitigation comes from not innovation but cost reduction and that is a cheaper service in all of its forms. Hence, room is for improvement still there…
We have communicated several times regarding fossil fuels, and you have been a great help to me as I have studied and learned something about that source of power.
Unfortunately, you really don’t have a fix on what is going on with renewable energy, most specifically solar. The narrative you cite is woefully out of date. You don’t understand the exponential growth of solar and the exponential reduction in costs that has been occurring in the last couple years. You mention that one of the problems with solar and wind is that the sun doesn’t always shine and the wind doesn’t always blow. That was a problem from 5 years ago. The third leg of the stool (in addition to the vast energy we can increasingly draw from solar at lower and lower cost, and which we can use to power our society, whether transport or industrial) — the third leg is the exponential growth in the technology and cost reduction of electrical storage. This technology has been following a similar exponential cost reduction, technical curve to solar, only about 4-5 years behind. It is the nail in the coffin of fossil fuels, and it will take a lot less time than you suggest.. There’s nothing like robust exponential growth in any technology.
I don’t mean to be catty about this, but I have found that the experts in Fossil don’t follow the the Renewables. You could not build and run a Nat Gas power station today in the southwest for the a price of and maintenance of a utility scale solar field.
As for the grid, our current grid is so decrepit and vulnerable that it’s way past been patched and bandaged. It needs to be rebuilt, almost ground up, and it will take into account the advantages of DER (distributed energy generation).
The catch phrase that one is starting to hear about these subjects is call “The Solar Singularity,” the point at which fossil becomes more expensive than renewables. And this massive shift doesn’t even take into account the social cost of climate change. It’s going to be an interesting decade or two.
Listened to your talk at the recent AAPG Unconventional Group 4/5/17. I would appreciate a copy of your presentation. Thanks.
Great article as always.