Art Berman
Decreasing EUR and b-exponents in the Bakken are because the sweet spot or core area has reached full development. More wells are now being drilled outside the core.
OPEC+ has done a dreadful job of managing world oil markets over the last three-and-a-half years.
I expect that $40 to $45 will be the WTI price range for the rest of 2020 barring a serious supply interruption.
The party is over for shale and U.S. energy dominance.
Gas markets are more over-supplied than they have been in 2.5 years and that the over-supply is increasing for now. That is hardly a bullish signal for gas prices.
This rally has always been about correcting from that gross under-valuation back to prices at about the time of the OPEC+ failure in early March. We are there.
Lower production of associated gas does not logically account for the complexity of natural gas markets. Conventional wisdom is, after all, based on conventional thinking.
We are near the end of a rally whose ceiling will be in the low $40-range for the foreseeable future.
I don’t know about you but I’m going to leave the champagne in the refrigerator for awhile.
WTI will average less than $20 in May WTI remains grossly under-priced. That sends the strongest possible signal to producers to shut in their wells. Oil prices will remain depressed…
A 100% Renewable Future Means a Poorer World
Much lower oil prices are inevitable in all scenarios once the false optimism of the present oil rally is recognized.