It is unlikely that the tight oil business will recover from its 2020 body blow. Saudi Arabia’s decision to cut production by 1 mmb/d tacitly acknowledges that it is unconcerned that higher prices will result in a resurgence of U.S. output.

The time from well start to enough production to offset base decline is almost a year—six times EIA’s estimate. It is nearly impossible for U.S. production to be flat at 11 mmb/d for 2021.

What the yield curve tells me is that there is little likelihood that oil prices will increase to much above $45 on a sustained basis until the market changes its sense of supply urgency. Until that happens, the yield curve provides good opportunities to play the excursions.

Missing barrels are inherent in the supply-demand accounting method that ignores inventory and only considers present period transactions.

What concerns me most is what will happen when markets realize that U.S. oil production will fall to levels not seen since the early 2000s.

Oil prices are stalled in the low $40s for WTi and mid-$40s for Brent. Producer behavior indicates that prices need to be lower.